NRF: Holiday Retail Sales Rise 4 Percent in 2016, Topping Estimates

January 13, 2017 | Holiday retail sales during November and December increased 4 percent over 2015 to $658.3 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. The number includes $122.9 billion in non-store (e-commerce and other direct) sales, which rose 12.6 percent from the prior year.

Holiday sales exceeded the retail trade association’s forecast of $655.8 billion, which would have equated to a 3.6 percent rise over 2015 sales. NRF also forecasted online sales to rise between 7 percent and 10 percent to a high of $117 billion for the holiday season. Sales figures exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants.

“These numbers show that the nation’s slow-but-steady economic recovery is picking up speed and that consumers feel good about the future,” according to NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Retail mirrors the economy. And while there might have been some bumps in the road for individual companies, the retail industry overall had a solid holiday season and retailers will work to sustain this in the year ahead.”

Retail categories that experienced growth in November and December included furniture and home furnishings as well as clothing and accessories, while categories such as sporting goods, electronics, and sales from department stores experienced declines, the NRF said.

NRF bases its sales data on data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, which said that overall December sales — including automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants — rose 0.6 percent from November on a seasonally adjusted basis and 4.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

While the Commerce Department releases e-commerce-specific retail sales data on a quarterly basis, NRF expects those sales to be on par with recent quarterly releases showing 16 percent growth year-over-year.

“In the new distributed commerce world that allows consumers to buy any product, anytime, anywhere, it really doesn’t matter whether a customer shops in a company’s store or on its website or mobile app. It’s all retail. Today’s retailers sell to shoppers any way they want to buy,” Shay said.