NRF Predicts 6 to 8 Percent Increase in Holiday Retail Spending this Year

The following article is based on a press release issued by the National Retail Federation on November 3, 2022.

November 3, 2022 | Despite recent supply chain and inflation issues, the National Retail Federation (NRF) today announced a positive outlook on the performance of the upcoming holiday season.

NRF forecasts that retail sales from November 1 to December 31 will grow approximately 6 to 8 percent — to between $942.6 billion and $960.4 billion — when compared to 2021. Holiday retail sales have increased an average of 4.9 percent year-over-year over the past 10 years.

According to NRF data, consumers continued the trend of starting their shopping early to spread out their spending and avoid stress during the holidays. An annual NRF survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics said that 46 percent of consumers planned to participate in holiday shopping before November but planned to spend an average amount of $832.84 — in line with the average over the past decade.

The organization also expects that online and non-store sales will increase between 10 and 12 percent, or between $262.8 billion and $267.6 billion, even during a time when consumers are shifting back to in-store shopping.

“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”

“The holiday shopping season kicked off earlier this year — a growing trend in recent years — as shoppers are concerned about inflation and availability of products,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Retailers are responding to that demand, as we saw several major scheduled buying events in October. While this may result in some sales being pulled forward, we expect to see continued deals and promotions throughout the remaining months.”

This year’s holiday forecast is in line with NRF’s full-year forecast, which predicted that retail sales will grow between 6 and 8 percent to more than $4.86 trillion in 2022.